Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty 10 due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this paper we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: 1) How much cropland will be used under different socio-economic and climate 1 Corresponding author: [email protected], Phone: 0049 – 331 – 288 2653, Fax: +49 331 288-2600, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany 2 [email protected], Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI part of Wageningen University and Research Centrum), The Netherlands 3 [email protected], Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), USA 4 [email protected], International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), USA 5 [email protected], National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan 6 [email protected], MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change 7 [email protected], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria 8 [email protected], Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Australia 9 [email protected], International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), USA 10 [email protected], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany 11 [email protected], Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), USA 12 [email protected], Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI part of Wageningen University and Research Centrum), The Netherlands 13 [email protected], Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Italy 14 [email protected], Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), France 15 [email protected], Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), USA 16 [email protected], MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change 17 [email protected], National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan 18 [email protected], Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI part of Wageningen University and Research Centrum), The Netherlands 19 [email protected], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria